Threat assessments and how they can become self-fulfilling prophecies
Singapore Armed Forces2021
Magazines
Total copies: 1
In this essay, the author feels that threat assessments are the foundation of a state's national security policy. To explain how threat assessments become self-fulfilling prophecies, he has organised the essay into five parts. In the first part, the author highlights the features of threat assessments and the challenges faced. He also explains why intention assessments of threats are more important than assessments of their capabilities and stresses that intention assessments are primarily based on perceptions. He then describes the origins of misperception and how it may contribute to decision-makers' cognitive bias, which influences their subsequent actions. He proceeds to outline the possible factors on how intentions can be misperceived as hostile even though the reality may suggest otherwise. He then suggests how misperceptions can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies and broadly describes how states may act when they perceive threats. Finally, the author concludes with the measures to ensure that threat assessments do not become self-fulfilling prophecies.
Author:
Imprint:
Singapore, 2021
Collation:
10p.
Frequency:
Monthly, Oct 2021
Language:
English
BRN:
130520